MOSKOWITZ: Let’s hope that federal asylum judges aren’t deciding 50 percent of their cases based on sequencing.

All rights reserved. If those cases were one day removed, the effect gets a lot weaker. DUBNER: So what does it look like for an asylum judge to be affected by the gambler’s fallacy? Hi everyone, thanks for listening to our new podcast 'The Bad Decisions Club'!

Join us weekly to hear our thoughts, talk to us on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/BadDcisionClub & Instagram https://www.instagram.com/baddecisionsclub_/ MOSKOWITZ: So the thought experiment was as follows — take two pitches that land in exactly the same spot. SHOP NOW . of its best-known subsidiary, YouTube. Let’s say I flip a coin and it comes up … heads. Moskowitz and his co-authors analyzed decision-making within three different professions – baseball umpires, loan officers, and asylum judges – to see whether they fall prey to the gambler’s fallacy. MOSKOWITZ: If you’re serving for instance, one of the best strategies is a randomized strategy, like a pitcher should do in baseball. MOSKOWITZ: Well, this was the most interesting part. So I want to qualify that because what we can show is whether the sequencing of approval or denial decisions has any bearing on the likelihood that the next case is approved or denied.

There wasn’t a single umpire that didn’t exhibit this kind of behavior. And it turns out they’re all pretty much about the same. This week we're talking about what monogamy means to us... Keep an eye on  our socials to see what next weeks episode is about! Thank you Katie Duke for being in my life…well my virtual life…I just started listening to the Bad Decisions podcast and am getting close to being caught up. A “heuristic” being, essentially, a cognitive shortcut. Total random occurrence. These cases are heard in immigration courts by federal judges.

(NSQ Ep. Or, my students don’t want to hear this, but occasionally I’ll grade an exam if front of a baseball game and I’ll stop and watch a couple of innings.
In a more overt admission of the fallibility of umpires, baseball has increasingly been using video replays to look at close calls. Or in fact if there is a weekend in between the decisions, then it’s almost nonexistent. It isn’t just supply and demand. DUBNER: Talk for just a minute why this kind of experiment, a field experiment, is inherently, to people like you, more valuable than a lab experiment with a bunch of undergrads trying to get some free pizza, for instance. WENDELSTEDT: If you miss something – the worst thing to do, you can never make up a call. Kelly SHUE: So I along with a couple of other researchers were interested in this idea of sequential-decision errors.

MOSKOWITZ: What I would call decision heuristics.

Then there was a moderate incentive scheme ….

Some loan officers operated under a weak incentive scheme …. MOSKOWITZ: That’s correct. Today’s episode was produced by Harry Huggins. Toby Moscowitz again: MOSKOWITZ: Meaning if the decisions that you’re making occur very close in time then you tend to fall prey to the sequencing effect. We then looked at what the loan officers did in order to get that 8 percent down to 1 percent — it turns out they ended up spending a lot more time on the loan application. You take Clayton Kershaw —  the umpire is going to call more strikes when Clayton Kershaw’s out there. Our latest Freakonomics Radio episode is called “How to Make a Bad Decision.” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above.). But it’s funny.

There’s a loan officer making that decision.

Bad Decisions Podcast | 20 followers on LinkedIn | Bad Decisions is a podcast that helps marketers understand why we choose what we choose, why we think what we think, and how to exploit this stuff for fun and commercial gain. A study found MLB umpires, loan officers and asylum judges are all susceptible to the gambler’s fallacy. Join us weekly to hear our thoughts, talk to us on Twitter https://twitter.com/BadDcisionClub & Instagram https://www.instagram.com/baddecisionsclub_/

So, Toby Moskowitz and his co-authors, Daniel Chen and Kelly Shue, have written this interesting research paper. Why? And what we find is that’s not true. We see this all the time, that the sequence of candidates that come through for a job, I think, matters.

"Bad Decisions… This study found that judges were much more likely to grant parole early in the day – shortly after breakfast, presumably – and again shortly after the lunch break.

Hi everyone, thanks for listening to our new podcast 'The Bad Decisions Club'!


Listen to Bad Decisions episodes free, on demand. They publish in order to get their research out there, maybe to get tenure, etc.

Also: how stock prices are affected by when a company reports earnings: SHUE: It makes today’s earnings announcement seem kind of less good in comparison. “The smartest people know all the things they aren’t very good at.” Me? So I’ve been able to travel this great country doing something I love and that’s umpiring baseball games. WENDELSTEDT: I think it’s very interesting and I really look forward to studying that some more, because running the umpire school and all that, I gotta keep up on the trends and the way that the perception is going out there also. Even if you’ve never watched a baseball game in your life, even if you don’t care at all whether someone in India gets a bank loan, you might care about how the United States runs its immigration courts. I’ve never been very good at learning just when to end a podcast episode. But what they all would seem to have in common is a standard of competence or excellence or whatnot.

So Shue and her colleagues collected data on firms’ quarterly earnings announcements from 1984 to 2013, to see how the markets responded. We are Holly & Jack, a twenty something, monogom-ish, hetro-ish couple talking about all things sex and relationships. Give a listen!! Well, in this particular case, this is their job, first of all, so you’re dealing with experts in their own field, making decisions that they should be experts on as opposed to maybe very smart undergrads but making a decision on something they haven’t had a lot of experience doing and shouldn’t be considered experts doing. Join us weekly to hear our thoughts, talk to us on Twitter https://twitter.com/BadDcisionClub & Instagram https://www.instagram.com/baddecisionsclub_/

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Giving Up vs. Navigating Through The No's. DUBNER: What do you do during your breaks? We threw in things like the horizontal spin and vertical distance of the pitch.